decks/

Forge simulation results and deck analysis, one directory per archetype variant.

Each variant is a hypothesis: change a few cards, then measure what it does to legality, combo density, and win rate. Every file here is generated — see regenerating below.

variants

variant	bracket 3	vacuum combos	combos	sac outlets	cmdr synergy	lands	avg MV	Forge win rate
`no-mikaeus/` ⭐	PASS	0	11	8	6	36	3.02	29% (24g)
`fast-ramp/`	PASS	0	11	8	6	36	2.84	33% (6g)
`lean-outlets/`	PASS	0	10	5	7	36	2.97	—
`commander-focus/`	PASS	0	7	7	10	36	3.03	—
`heavy-removal/`	PASS	0	7	8	8	36	2.95	—
`low-curve/`	PASS	0	11	8	9	36	2.67	—
`mikaeus/`	FAIL	7	39	8	6	36	3.08	—
`aggro-hate/`	PASS	0	9	6	5	36	3.03	50% (2g)
`card-engine/`	PASS	0	10	8	6	36	2.97	—
`go-wide/`	PASS	0	10	8	6	36	2.97	0% (2g)
`grindy/`	PASS	0	9	6	5	36	2.92	100% (1g)
`opponent-facing/`	PASS	0	9	5	10	36	2.92	—
`proliferate/`	PASS	0	10	5	5	36	3.08	—

⭐ = current baseline

the hypotheses

no-mikaeus — Baseline. Aristocrats + -1/-1, every combo needs board state.

fast-ramp — fast-ramp

lean-outlets — The deck runs 8 sac outlets and probably needs ~5. Cut 3 for interaction and card advantage -- does consistency actually drop?

commander-focus — The commander only steals from OPPONENTS' creatures, but the deck's -1/-1 engine mostly counters our own. Push counters onto their board.

heavy-removal — Bracket 3 pods interact. Trade combo redundancy for removal and see whether surviving longer beats assembling faster.

low-curve — Avg MV is 3.02 and the engine lands ~T6. Cut the top of the curve entirely -- does the deck come online sooner and win more?

mikaeus — Does the highest-leverage combo card (28 combos) stay legal? Expected FAIL: goes infinite with every sac outlet.

aggro-hate — aggro-hate

card-engine — card-engine

go-wide — go-wide

grindy — grindy

opponent-facing — opponent-facing

proliferate — proliferate

layout

decks/<variant>/
  decklist.mgt     the 100 cards, "N Card Name" per line
  bracket.txt      bracket-3 + house-rule check
  combos.txt       combos already in the deck, and one card away
  sim/             Forge runs, one triple per batch:
    <stamp>.log      raw Forge output, every game
    <stamp>.txt      human-readable report
    <stamp>.json     machine-readable results
  README.md        generated summary

regenerating

python3 tools/make_variants.py       # rebuild every decklist from the spec
python3 tools/variant.py <name>      # analysis for one variant (~10s)
python3 tools/variant.py <name> --sim 24   # + 24 Forge games (~25 min)
python3 tools/compare.py             # rebuild this file

The decklists are generated from tools/make_variants.py, which holds each variant as a cut/add list against the baseline. Change the baseline and every variant follows. Analysis files are rewritten each run; sim runs are additive, so batches accumulate and stay comparable.

reading the win rates

Forge's AI is heuristic and weak at combo decks by its own documentation. Ours is a combo deck, so the AI under-plays it. Treat win rates as a floor and as evidence the deck functions and its cards interact — not as a power rating. Random baseline in a 4-player pod is 25%. Opponents are stock Commander precons (roughly bracket 2).

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